Event Guide — What Each Release Means
FOMC
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve's decision on the federal funds rate. The single most market-moving event. A rate hike strengthens the dollar and pressures equities. A cut does the opposite. Traders stop out positions and avoid entries 15–30 min either side.
FOMC
FOMC Minutes
Detailed notes from the most recent Fed meeting, released 3 weeks after. Reveals internal debate and tone of policymakers. Can shift rate expectations significantly if tone is more hawkish or dovish than expected.
FOMC
FOMC Economic Projections
The Fed's "dot plot" — each member's projection for future interest rates. Markets analyze the median dot to determine the expected rate path for the next 2–3 years. A hawkish shift in dots moves markets significantly.
FOMC
Fed Press Conference
Powell's press conference following the rate decision. Often more volatile than the decision itself — traders parse every word for clues about future policy. Unexpected language can reverse the initial reaction entirely.
High Impact
Non Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Monthly count of jobs added outside agriculture. The most watched labor market report. A strong number suggests a healthy economy and reduces rate cut expectations. Released first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET.
High Impact
Inflation Rate (CPI)
Consumer Price Index measures the change in prices paid by consumers. The Fed's primary inflation gauge. Higher than expected = hawkish Fed = dollar up, equities down. Lower = dovish expectations = risk on.
High Impact
Core Inflation Rate (Core CPI)
CPI excluding food and energy — considered more stable. The Fed watches core CPI more closely than headline because food and energy are too volatile. A persistent core above 2% keeps rate cut expectations low.
High Impact
Core PCE Price Index
The Fed's preferred inflation measure. Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding food and energy. Tends to run slightly below CPI. When PCE stays elevated it directly delays rate cuts — a major market driver.
High Impact
GDP Growth Rate
Measures the total output of the economy quarter over quarter. Two consecutive negative quarters = recession. Beats expectations are risk-on; misses increase recession fears and pressure equities. Released in three estimates: Advance, Second, Final.
High Impact
PPI (Producer Price Index)
Measures price changes from the seller's perspective — what producers charge for goods. A leading indicator of consumer inflation since producer costs eventually pass through to consumers. Hot PPI often precedes hot CPI.
High Impact
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector. Above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction. A leading indicator of economic health. Released first business day of each month. Strong prints are bullish for equities and the dollar.
High Impact
ISM Services PMI
Same as manufacturing PMI but for the services sector, which makes up ~80% of the US economy. Often has more impact than manufacturing PMI for this reason. Above 50 = services expanding = risk on.
High Impact
JOLTs Job Openings
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — shows the number of unfilled job openings. A high reading signals a tight labor market, which supports higher wages and inflation. The Fed watches this closely alongside NFP.
High Impact
Unemployment Rate
Percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking work. The Fed has a dual mandate — low inflation AND maximum employment. A rising unemployment rate gives the Fed cover to cut rates.
High Impact
Durable Goods Orders
Measures new orders for manufactured goods expected to last 3+ years — planes, machinery, computers. A leading indicator of business investment. Core durable goods (ex-defense, ex-aircraft) is watched most closely.
High Impact
Retail Sales
Measures total receipts at retail stores — a direct gauge of consumer spending, which drives ~70% of GDP. A strong number suggests consumers are healthy and supports growth. Weak retail sales raise recession concerns.
High Impact
Personal Income & Spending
Personal Income measures how much Americans earn. Personal Spending measures how much they spend. Together they show the health of the consumer. Released with PCE — gives context to whether inflation is demand-driven.
Medium Impact
Building Permits & Housing Starts
Building Permits = approved future construction. Housing Starts = construction already begun. Leading indicators of housing sector health. A slowdown signals tighter financial conditions are cooling the economy.
Medium Impact
Existing Home Sales
Number of previously owned homes sold in a month. Sensitive to mortgage rates — when rates rise, sales fall as affordability drops. Gives insight into the broader housing market and consumer confidence.
Medium Impact
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Survey measuring how optimistic consumers feel about their finances and the economy. Low sentiment = consumers may spend less = weaker growth. The preliminary release mid-month often moves markets more than the final.