Expectancy Per Trade
$0
per trade on average
Enter your stats to calculate expectancy
Monthly P&L
—
projected
R:R Ratio
—
avg win ÷ avg loss
Breakeven Win %
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min win rate to profit
Full Breakdown
Win Rate—
Loss Rate—
Average Win—
Average Loss—
R:R Ratio—
Expectancy Per Trade—
Trades Per Month—
Projected Monthly P&L—
Monthly Return %—
Breakeven Win Rate—
Margin Above Breakeven—
12-Month Compounding Projection
Month
Balance
P&L
Return %
What is Expectancy?
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
A positive expectancy means your strategy makes money over time regardless of any single trade result. A negative expectancy means you will lose money over time no matter how disciplined you are. Most prop firm traders with a 2:1 R:R only need to win 34% of their trades to be profitable.
A positive expectancy means your strategy makes money over time regardless of any single trade result. A negative expectancy means you will lose money over time no matter how disciplined you are. Most prop firm traders with a 2:1 R:R only need to win 34% of their trades to be profitable.
Win rate alone means nothing. A 70% win rate with a 1:3 R:R (risking $300 to make $100) has negative expectancy — you lose money long term. A 40% win rate with a 3:1 R:R has strong positive expectancy. Focus on expectancy, not win rate. The 12-month projection assumes you reinvest profits — real results will vary.